Analysts on Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Chaos: 'Unhinged Times' Due to Tariffs

It's been a wild ride for U.S. gamers this week, starting with the full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2 and its accompanying games, which quickly turned to dismay over its $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour. The roller coaster continued as Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders to assess the impact of the Trump Administration’s sudden, sweeping tariffs on nearly every nation worldwide.

We've explored elsewhere why the Nintendo Switch 2 costs so much and the potential impact of these new tariffs on the broader gaming industry. However, the burning question on everyone's mind right now is, what will Nintendo do next? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 become even more expensive when pre-orders finally open?

Typically, when faced with questions about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, their insights are usually backed by a solid understanding of industry trends and data. I've already done this twice this week, but this time, something unprecedented happened: every analyst I spoke to was stumped. Their responses were filled with guesses and caveats, reflecting the chaotic and fast-evolving nature of the current situation. No one can accurately predict what Nintendo, Trump, or anyone else will do in the coming days, weeks, or months.

With that in mind, here's a summary of what the analysts had to say:

Sky-High Switch

The panel was divided. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after the announcement, but the delay has changed his perspective. He believes Nintendo will likely announce price hikes for the system, games, and accessories after running simulations. "I hope I am wrong, but if these sky-high tariffs persist, Nintendo may have no choice," he stated. He speculated that the base model of the Switch 2 could reach $500, and questioned Nintendo's decision to announce pricing before the tariffs were finalized.

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, also predicted that game prices, including those from Nintendo, would likely increase, though the extent and specifics remain uncertain. He noted that the tariffs were much higher than anticipated, forcing all businesses reliant on international supply chains to reevaluate their pricing. "The US could certainly be joining the group of territories subject to higher pricing due to these tariffs," he added.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, agreed that hardware prices would rise due to the tariffs but suggested that software prices might not be as affected, thanks to the growing dominance of digital distribution.

Holding the Line

On the other side, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, believes Nintendo will try hard to avoid a price increase. He suggests that the $449.99 price point already accounts for volatility from the Trump tariffs, and that Nintendo has restructured its supply chain to mitigate geopolitical risks. However, he acknowledges the unpredictability of the tariffs, especially with the situation in Vietnam, and suggests that Nintendo might need to absorb or offset additional costs if the trade landscape worsens.

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo is in a difficult position after announcing the launch price. He suggests that Nintendo hopes for a solution in the coming weeks and may maintain the announced price until 2026, but if the tariffs persist, a price adjustment could impact the brand and consumer perception at launch.

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicted higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his previous comments about Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets, suggesting that Nintendo might have considered a similar approach in the US but chose to wait and see due to the chaotic tariff situation.

Elliott also painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He noted that manufacturers, including Nintendo, are shifting production to non-tariff-impacted markets, but the logistical challenges of moving entire supply chains are immense. He criticized the tariffs as harmful to consumers and the economy, contradicting claims of leading to a "stronger, richer nation."

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